The 2014 Midterm Elections, which take place on November 4th, are showing

good signs for the Republican Party. As the President suffers falling approval ratings

(40%), and the American people feel less confident in incumbent politicians, the GOP

has an enormous opportunity to take control of the US Senate. As of right now there are

55 Democrats and 45 Republicans, which means that the GOP needs a net gain of 6 seats

to take control. There are more than enough races to cause this to occur. The latest Real

Clear Politics polling average is showing that there are ten seats currently categorized as

toss-ups. Democrats hold seven of them while Republicans hold three.

Interestingly, four of those seven seats held by Democrats are in states that Mitt

Romney carried in 2012. As a result of this, Democratic candidates are distancing

themselves from President Obama as much as they can. In Louisiana, Arkansas and

Alaska for example, the Democratic candidates are taking very conservative positions on

issues that range from gun control to energy policy. It is worth noting that the

Republicans are expected to gain each of these states. Political analysts also unanimously

agree that Republicans will gain in West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota. There are

three extremely close races in Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire, as well. The

Republican challengers in Colorado and Iowa are ahead in the polls with just four days

until Election Day. If the polls are correct the GOP will gain eight seats, which is two

more than they need to take control of the Senate.

However, there are some factors that could cause the GOP to fall short of taking

control of the Senate. For example, Republicans currently hold Kentucky, Georgia and

Kansas, but the Democrats, and one independent (in Kansas), are keeping those races

very close. These are, in my opinion, the most important states in the election because

they will decide who holds the Senate.

There are two factors that will decide this election. Either Republicans will ride

Obama’s unpopularity into the winner’s circle, or Democrats will have localized the races

to the point where the President is irrelevant.

Another factor in this election will be turnout. Historically, midterm elections

have a higher percentage of older white voters, which is very good for Republicans. But

Democrats (and Republicans) have been putting millions of dollars into political ads that

are urging their base to not only vote, but also vote early. It is expected that as much as

40% of the entire vote could be cast before Election Day, which is historically

unprecedented.

In the end, the New York Times is giving the Republicans a 70% chance of taking

the Senate with four days until Election day, which means that both houses of Congress

would be controlled by the GOP.