At the time of writing this, we are exactly two weeks away from the UCL (UEFA Champions League) Final. We will see current holders, PSG, take on potential first-time winners, Arsenal. These are arguably some of the best teams currently in Europe. Both are currently top of their domestic league standings, and they are home to some of the best players in the world. However, despite performances in the knockout stages of the tournament, there seems to be a belief that PSG will sweep the floor against Arsenal. This could be biased as a fan, but I don’t think that will happen. In this article, I will try to predict who will be crowned Champions of Europe in Budapest.
Let’s start off with Arsenal. Despite being known as “bottlers,” Arsenal have been one of the best teams in Europe. This is our third consecutive year in the UCL, and now we are in the final for the first time since 2006. Two years ago we went out in the quartersfinals, last year we went out in the semi-finals, and this year we are in the final. As the league phase standings of the UCL may suggest, we have statistically been the best team in Europe. This is because we finished first, and we actually went unbeaten the whole tournament. In the league phase, we played Athletico Bilbao (2-0), Olympiacos (2-0), Atletico Madrid (4-0), Slavia Prague (3-0), Bayern Munich (3-1), Club Brugge (3-0), Inter Milan (3-2), and Kairat Almaty (3-2). The only team to score more than a goal on us was last place Kairat Almaty ironically, however we played our “B Team” that game. Our best game of the league phase was against Bayern Munich, where we saw goals from Jurrien Timber, Noni Madueke, and Gabriel Martinelli. In the knockout phase, we had to play, and beat, (on aggregate) Bayer Leverkusen (3-1), Sporting Lisbon (1-0), Atletico Madrid again (2-1), and now we are against PSG. Based on these statistics, we should beat PSG as we are currently unbeaten and possess a strong goalscoring and defensive record, but anything can happen. Aside from European football, Arsenal have been dominant in the Premier League as well. At the time of writing (May 16th), we sit two points ahead of Manchester City in first place with 79 points, and we have won 24 games, drawn 7, and lost only 5 with a total of 36 games played so far. Given our last opponents have been teams we beat earlier on in the season, Burnley and Crystal Palace, it is very fair to say the league will be ours. Our three top scorers in all competitions should be ready and fit for the final: Viktor Gykores, Eberechi Eze, and Bukayo Saka. However we are missing a crucial piece in the defense in Jurrien Timber, who we will need to lock up PSG’s lethal left winger, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. With Ben White out injured, if Timber isn’t back in time, we will need to deploy backup centerback Cristian Mosquera at right back, and although he is good, playing him out of position against a top winger without the proper minutes preferred for experience, it will be difficult.
Regarding PSG, they haven’t had as much luck in the UCL. Despite winning last year, they finished 11th in the league phase this season. During this stage, they played Atalanta (4-0 win), Barcelona (2-1 win), Leverkusen (7-2 win), Bayern Munich (1-2 loss), Tottenham (5-3 win), Athletic Club (0-0 draw), Sporting Lisbon (2-1 loss), and Newcastle (1-1 draw). Given the fact that they did not finish within the top 8 in the league phase, they had to go through the playoff rounds, where they played fellow French club, Monaco. They won the first game 3-2 and tied the second game 2-2, meaning they won 5-4 on aggregate. The game looked like it was going into extra time in the second game, but Leicester City loanee, Wout Faes, failed to put the ball into the net. Upon making it to the knockout stage, they played and beat (on aggregate) Chelsea (8-2), Liverpool (4-0), and Bayern Munich (6-5) with a thrilling first leg ending in a 5-4 win for PSG. So far in the French league, they sit comfortably in first with 76 points, having won 24 games, drawn 4, and lost 5, very similar statistics to Arsenal in their domestic league. Regarding their players, they have a lot of world class stars. They possess current Ballon D’or holder and prolific striker, Ousmane Dembele, two of the best wingers in the world in Desire Doue and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, one of the best CDM’s in Vitinha, and arguably the best left back in the world in Nuno Mendes. PSG bought goalkeeper Lucas Chevalier in the summer to replace Gianluigi Donnarumma, but he has since been benched due to the recent breakthrough of Russian goalkeeper Matvey Safonov, who has proven to be a legitimate threat in goal. With this in mind, Arsenal will not have an easy final, not at all.
If I have to put my money on it, I’d say a 1-1 draw where either team could win on penalties. Arsenal’s attack is nowhere near as PSG’s, and the Parisian midfield is arguably “better” than Arsenal’s midfield, however I’d say that even though both defenses are good, with Jurrien Timber able to play, Arsenal will have the better defense, and defense wins you games just as much as offense does. Riccardo Calafiori is the 2nd best leftback in world behind Nuno Mendes (I’d say Calafiori is better than Marc Cucurella), Timber and Achraf Hakimi are on almost the same level, however the centre back partnership of Gabriel and William Saliba is genuinely scary. With them on the field together, we haven’t conceded an open-play goal in a UCL knockout match since April of 2024. That is a crazy statistic. On the other hand, Despite Marquinhos and Willian Pacho making a great centre back pairing, they have shown to be exploitable at times. Given just how long William Saliba and Gabriel have played together, their chemistry and individual skill will be used to Arsenal’s favor and thus will be used against PSG’s fierce attack. Despite me saying PSG’s midfield is a step up from Arsenal’s, it is not that noticeable and I can see the battles in the midfield going either way. PSG’s attack genuinely puts Arsenal’s to shame, so the PSG defense won’t have a lot of work to do compared to ours. I can definitely see PSG scoring, but if we somehow get a goal, I’d say it comes from a corner or penalty kick; it will be hard to score an open-play goal against this team. I see the game being scoreless in extra time and going to penalties. Despite being considered a world class goalkeeper, David Raya isn’t the best at penalties. On the other hand, Matvey Safonov saved 4 penalties in his last penalty shootout, an insane stat. Based off of this, I’d say PSG beat Arsenal in the penalty shootout, although the game entirely could go either way.
I don’t know if Arsenal will win or PSG will win, but I do know that this game will not be easy for either team.
