Right now, Google is certainly one of the most dominant tech companies. According to StatCounter, Google currently has about a 90 percent market share in search engines. However, the Department of Justice has challenged this dominance in the market by claiming that Google has violated section 2 of the Sherman Act, meaning that the company has an illegal monopoly. This started back in October of 2020, when the DOJ initially sued Google. In August of 2024, the ruling was finally made that Google does have an illegal monopoly. As a result, Google may have to end deals it has with companies like Apple, making Google the default search browser on certain devices, and they may even have to sell off Google Chrome. This isn’t set in stone, though, as remedies have not been decided on yet. Because of this, what may happen to Google is still up in the air.
A major development that has occurred since the DOJ originally sued Google is Trump’s inauguration. The Biden administration was characterized by going after big tech, having gone after companies like Meta, Apple, and, of course, Google for their monopolistic practices. Now that Biden has been replaced by a more pro-business president, it would seem that Google would face much lighter repercussions. However, Trump has taken a surprisingly harsh stance against big tech companies. In a post on Truth Social, Trump initially announced his nomination of Gail Slater to lead the Department of Justice Antitrust Division, where he said that the division will continue to fight the abuses of big tech. Trump also nominated Andrew Ferguson to become chairman of the FTC, claiming that he has a “clear record of standing up to Big Tech censorship”. In February, the FTC issued a Request for Information for public comment on the abuses of tech companies, which Ferguson claimed “will help the FTC better understand how these firms may have violated the law by silencing and intimidating Americans for speaking their minds”.
Google may still have some hope, though. In the past, Slater worked for the now dissolved Internet Association, a lobbying organization that represented tech companies and challenged government regulation. It is also important to note that Google was among the companies that founded this group in 2012. This doesn’t necessarily mean that Slater will go easier on Google, but it is still something to consider. Also, Elon Musk’s role in the government is an indicator of how the regulation of big businesses is currently being handled. Musk, as head of the Department of Government Efficiency, has weakened agencies that investigate his companies, like how he has recently fired employees of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration who were assessing the risks of self-driving vehicles, according to the Financial Times. While no one at Google is as involved in the government as Musk, what Musk is currently doing shows how it isn’t unimaginable that a big business can influence government decisions for its own benefit.
Trump has publicly commented on Google’s breakup, but his statement didn’t shed much light on how he would influence the outcome. During a Chicago event in October 2024, Trump stated, “I’m not a fan of Google, they treat me badly”. While this would make it seem like he would then be in favor of the breakup, he did go on to say that “what you can do without breaking it up is make sure that it’s more fair”. Even with Trump’s mention that he wouldn’t want the company to be broken up, it still doesn’t mean that he will step in. Although it is still unclear if Trump himself will have any impact on what happens to Google, it is still good not to have to speculate on what his actual thoughts are.
Google likely won’t come out of this unscathed. While it is not impossible that they can avoid serious repercussions, the odds seem very stacked against them. This month, a trial will be held to find what remedies are appropriate, and the judge is looking to make the ruling by August. Google appears to be worried about what may happen to them, as they attempted to bar employees from speaking about this case with each other or people outside of the company. This was only recently rescinded as a settlement with the Alphabet Workers Union. This is not the only legal trouble that Google is in, however, as in March, the EU made the preliminary ruling that Google has violated antitrust laws by favoring its own flight, hotel, and shopping services when searching. As a result, Google may face a fine of up to 10 percent of their global annual revenue, which would come out to a maximum of $35 billion, according to The Verge. More recently, on April 15th, the Japan Fair Trade Commission issued a cease and desist order that says Google must stop pre-installing its search engine on Android phones. With everything hitting the company all at once, we may be entering into a world where Google no longer holds the dominance that they have over tech that they do today.
